From the moment Donald Trump entered the presidential race, the news media and pundits predicted his political demise. Each time his poll numbers went up instead of down, they rationalized it in irrational ways. For example, the news was flooded with Trump’s supposed missteps and guffaws. But when his poll numbers went up instead of down, the pundits claimed it’s because he’d gotten so much “free publicity”—never mind that the publicity had been given with the goal of making him look bad.
I’m not a political analyst. This is neither a defense nor criticism of Trump or any candidate. It’s a political outsider’s nonscientific attempt to explain what continues to befuddle so many. The seven counterpoints to conventional wisdom as to why “Trump can’t win…” are built from conversations with regular folks and nothing more. And here’s a bonus prediction based solely on these anecdotes: if Trump stays in the race, he’ll pick up support from Democrats, independents, African-Americans and women that will continue to befuddle his critics.
Trump can’t win because…
1. Trump doesn’t know the names of terror leaders.
Trump’s supporters think that anybody can memorize names of terror leaders and talking points about strategy. They believe those who do know the names have done a disastrous job on terrorism policy. They think it’s more important to have a leader who will stop following advice that keeps proving wrong than to have someone who can recite names.
2. Trump doesn’t have a plan.
Trump’s supporters believe that politicians who do have plans have messed up things pretty badly. They think Trump’s leadership skills make him more likely to accomplish a goal than a politician who has a plan.
3. Trump isn’t conservative enough.
Trump’s supporters don’t care that he doesn’t walk the party line. In fact, even if they don’t agree with all of his positions, they see his range of views as evidence that he won’t robotically bow to the will of a party above the people. His divergent views also appeal to some Democrats and independents.
4. Trump has flip-flopped.
Trump’s supporters, like many Americans, have changed their mind on issues over the years and it doesn’t bother them that Trump has, too. When Trump is criticized for flip-flopping, it only solidifies the idea among his supporters that the news media is stacking the deck against him. For example, the same reporters have not highlighted Hillary Clinton’s and President Obama’s flip-flops on gay marriage (both said through at least 2008 that they opposed it). Nor have they singled out Clinton’s change of heart on illegal immigration (in 2003, she said she was “adamantly against illegal immigrants.”)
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5. Trump personally insults people.
Trump’s supporters don’t think his penchant for insult outweighs the skillset he has to accomplish things that matter. Further, they believe Trump is giving as good as he gets whether it’s Democrats and other Republicans calling his supporters crazies, likening Republicans to terrorists, making fun of his hair, claiming he’s never read the Bible “because he’s not in it,” or saying he is a narcissistic clown.
6. Trump is against immigrants.
Trump’s supporters are wise to the propaganda effort that seeks to conflate illegal immigrants with legal immigrants. They know that Trump has spoken out in strong support of legal immigration, but opposes illegal immigration, as they do.
7. Trump won’t apologize.
Trump’s supporters are sick of the apology culture in which the media and pundits dictate appropriate behavior and demand apologies for perceived transgressions. They think a politician’s apology doesn’t change the deed and is rarely sincere; it’s simply a way of saying “I’m sorry I got caught” or “I’m sorry that what I did hurt my poll numbers.” Trump’s supporters believe his defiance of the apology culture demonstrates he will not be subject to the whims of media demands du jour.
fools all of you thinkng democracy or politicians can save this country. A country built on and maintained through blood, genocide , slavery and terrorism WILL fall. We’re still under the yoke of the Declaration of Independence and the constitution, both outdated documents, sterilized from conception. This scoundrek Lysander Spooner stealing his name from a true original thinker who said we have NO obligation to perpetuate this failed system. NO people, ANYtime and ANYwhere have ever attained liberty through voting. But hey people get the government they deserve! The people are the problem, not the politicians…I’m glad little white teenagers are joining ISIS, you’ve offered them nothing else worth living dying for
I think Trump might be able to win the democratic nomination to , If he switched sides
Nice job!
Great article Sharyl. Those people are stuck in ‘politics as usual’ mode. They are out of touch with what many people are saying about the business as usual crap. And the wimpy, limp roll over and play dead Republican establishment leadership just does not get it. Trump will rock the boat to see who falls overboard first. Elect Don “the Donald” Trump and lets have a new boss who won’t take any *** .
I am tired of the current batch of crooks in office.lets elect Trump. At least he knows how to make money in the real world. And dosent take any crap ffom the crooked media. Should make for a fun 8years of the media getting shut up and learning how to report with honor. They can write a fiction book if they cant control themselves!!! Trump for Pres
You got it.
But you missed one.
#8. NOT a politician.
I am seeing that most people are fed up with sock puppets who attempt to be all things to all people—–until they are elected.
From all sides of the isle and the rafters too, an honest conversation, and “damn the torpedoes” without equivocating is a breath of fresh air from the carefully written pablum we have been accustomed to.
Exactly! He’s not beholden to any lobbyists.
The Donald is “apolitical”. Basically, he doesnt care about the parties. Also he’s a leader at a time when we have no leadership. Add that to Sharyll’s brilliant analysis and you have a winner.
rodguy911
The viciousness and callousness of the attacks on Trump by the National Review scribblers is all the more remarkable for the fact that Trump has spent his life and career in the private sector creating jobs and economic opportunities for others in the private sector based on merit. Given that Trump’s career is the kind of thing that National Reviewers would normally consider praiseworthy, their scurrilous screeds do more damage to their own reputations than they do to Trump’s.
It is also interesting to note that the estimable Kevin Williamson, upon finding out that Arizona law enforcement officials presented evidence indicating there was probable cause to believe obama’s identity documents were forgeries and a fraud may have been committed, chose to vilify the law enforcement official rather than simply recommend obama waive his privacy rights to the vault copies to clean up any confusion or misguided law-enforcement conclusions.
With all that in mind, an argument can be made that a lot of today’s conservative pundits are simply impostors, and Trump has somehow prompted them to expose themselves.
Excellent post, Lysander.
Many Trump supporters I know have been waiting to support Trump. They were waiting for someone like him for years, someone who will stop the fundamental transformation of America. They have seen enough. There’s not much Trump can do to change their minds. Trump for them is revenge, revenge against the Republicans they voted into office and have done nothing. Revenge against those Democrats who are transnationals, those Democrats who care more about the party than the nation. But Trump also represents hope: “Make America Great Again” says it all. Can’t you feel it? There is a bubbling excitement. Nothing sticks to Trump because the pundits are really shills for liberalism to begin with. Can’t you see it, a sly twinkle in the eye. Trump supporters don’t mind that he is rich. It tells them he can’t be bought. Even today, after almost 8 years, if you want to know where things stand politically, make a dare. Dare Obama and Trump to release their college transcripts. You know what will happen. That’s why, in a nutshell, people support Trump.
The trouble with the establishment is that they still don’t realize that finally most voters want someone they can believe when statements are made, and the persona to make them come true instead of saying we just can’t do this because it will never work, no matter the details or plans that never seem to come true. Trump struck a nerve for which the career republicans in politics and the media don’t have a medication with which to relieve the pain, so they attack him personally. Seems like I’ve heard this before.
But it’s still possible that Trump is a only bigger, better version of the candidates that shot to the top before crashing in 2012. Appealing personality, stage presence, a great life story and a great stump speech — these things can get you in the door and sustain you for quite a while.
But there comes a time — and who can say when it is, exactly? — that even Trump supporters will start to say, “Yes, great lines on immigration and trade, but we’ve heard them many times before. Now tell us some of your other ideas and how you intend to fix other pressing issues. What about wage stagnation, dysfunction in DC, corruption in government, ISIS and Iran?”
Either Trump will be ready to sound insightful on other issues, or he won’t be. At some point bluster will get old, even for The Donald. JMHO and TWT
I wish they would ask all candidates in the debates about where they stand on many more issues instead of asking ‘gotcha’ type questions about statements they made in the past. Like:
* What are your plans to fix the IRS and simplify the tax code?
* What are your plans to deal with the millions of people here illegally?
* What are the (5) biggest problems facing our country?
I wish they would get rid of the celebrity debate moderators and focus on the candidates, and not their own fame and fortune.
Early on the journolist meme went out that any questions about the veracity of Barack Obama’s biographical narrative had been “widely debunked.” No actual debunking needed to take place in a real investigative sense; rather, it was enough (they thought) just to keep repeating the verbiage that only crazy fringe dwellers entertained the notion that Obama might be lying about his past. And yet, seven years later polls are still finding that a highly significant percentage of Americans still have doubts.
Donald Trump is among them, and is not afraid to say he is not wholly convinced the long form birth certificate pdf posted to White House.gov is legit. He has not of late pushed the issue to the fore as he once did, but neither has he ever apologized for being a birther. Given their statistical significance , I think analysts are making a mistake when they discount how this favorably resonates with this demographic.
i used to LOVE trump, but i’m breaking up with him.
and donald, you really NEED my vote…
i’m in an early primary state and it’s a swing state in a general election…
i wrote 100s of supportive posts.
i watched every news conference.
I watched and CHEERED every speech.
I listened to every radio interview.
i forgave him for criticizing a genuine war hero.
i overlooked his insensitive remark about P.O.W.s
i excused him for the ‘blood attack’ on megyn kelly.
but donald, you broke my heart… you broke my heart donald…
a totally unnecessary and bullying insult on fiorina’s appearance…
followed by insults to the great and accomplished dr ben carson calling him: “just an OK doctor” and “looks like he memorized that bible verse just a couple of minutes before his speech”
donald, are you still in the 2nd grade?
looks like it.
so many people have said you do not have the ‘temperament’ to be president.
now i believe it.
bye bye.
GO CRUZ GO!
Thanks Sheryl for a complete accurate analogy. Perfect. Your the best.
Excellent article Sharyl, excellent! Only you and Hannity are honest about what is happening here with Trump. We’ve had it with our spineless GOP they’ve given Obama everything he’s wanted on a silver platter! We’re sick of it! We want a fighter, pure and simple.
Very perceptive analysis. Most of the media are unable to objectively analyze politics like Sharyl. It has been disappointing watching so many pundits that I used to respect insult Trump supporters and offer such out of touch description of them.
Great article.
Thank you for being truthful . I saw Fiorina on U tube making fun of Boxer’s hair and nobody has talked about that . I hope people find out that she’s not as nice as she pretends to be.