The polls aren’t looking very good for Trump– or are they?

Let’s start by saying some of “the polls” don’t have a great track record as a predictor of who would become President of the United States in 2016. One of the biggest problems was how information from polls was sometimes cherrypicked and reported on the news. We’ve generally learned a lesson: Consume polls with a grain of salt. 

That includes the information in this post.

With that in mind, it’s still interesting to look at some figures tracked by RealClearPolitics.

President Trump appears to lag in most every category and battleground state. But there’s a recent shift in trending. Joe Biden is now behind where Hillary Clinton scored on two key measures— and Clinton, as we know, lost.

First: The national polling average

Biden is up 6.4 points over Trump in the national polling average on August 8— a healthy lead.

But Clinton was besting Trump by a bigger margin, 7.4 points, on August 8, 2016.

That puts Trump ahead of his place in 2016 by one percentage point, and on the positive side of his 2016 comparison for the first time since May 17.

Second: Favorability.

Biden has a 12.4% favorability advantage over Trump as of August 8— a big number.

But Clinton had an even bigger advantage over Trump on August 8, 2016: 17.7%.

That means Trump’s favorability deficit is 5.3 percentage points better than it was at the same time in 2016.

It’s still a long way between August 8 and November 3. And, as we have seen— anything can happen one way or the other!

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18 thoughts on “The polls aren’t looking very good for Trump– or are they?”

  1. These polls are suspect. I received a Biden poll via text from the Beto O’Rourke people. I did not give an answer to my preference when I cannot be stopped from voting. Biden is a weaker candidate than Mondale… so I crossed over and voted for Biden in the primary and I know others who did the same!

  2. U should look at sampling data for these polls, as there some big issues just like in 2016…….who they are polling.

  3. Polls are polls but what about common sense. Do we really want to believe (regardless of party affiliation) that the majority of people in this Country are not in favor of law and order, want open borders, want less police or no police. I believe in the American people and its values.

    I suggest that President Trump will win by a landslide. If not this Country is done.

    1. Sam, you are exactly right! I think the Barbaric Left is overplaying its hand with all of these stupid riots. Look how badly Nixon beat the tired old Vice-President in 1968, after a violent year or Leftist riots…

  4. Jan 1980 – – Jimmy Carter 62% – Rondald Reagan 33%
    Jan 1983 Harris Poll Mondale 53% – Reagan 44%
    May 1988 New York Times Article Michael Dukakis 10 points over G.W.H. Bush
    July 1988 – Gallup Poll – Michael Dukakis 17 point over G.W.H. Bush
    October 23, 2016 – – ABC Poll – – Clinton vaults to 12 point lead over Trump. 62% Disapprove of Trump.

    I would fall out of my chair if I ever saw a poll where the Republican was leading

  5. Best analogy I’ve hear on polls is – -imagine watching a close football game in the 3rd qtr of the game and taking a poll on who is going to win. Poll would be far more accurate in the 4th qtr during the last 2 min of the game. Polls only really matter when Election Day is much closer. ?

  6. I take all polls with a grain of salt., Who did pollsters talk with ? Was it a balanced survey? How is the media presenting it ?

  7. If they allow mail-in ballots, I believe the election will be over before it starts. I do not wish to trust my vote to a member of the postal workers union (which supports the democrat party).

  8. I have no fear that the Democrats will win the election. I’m terrified that they will steal the election by every previously inconceivable means at their disposal. One only has to look what the Democrats have already done to a duly elected President they couldn’t defeat. They are evil and will not stop at anything to grab power.

  9. I agree with Sam M….and while it’s disheartening to think that there are people hating America so much that they cannot even find it in their millionaire souls to at least show respect for the Flag of the country that afforded them the opportunity to accumulate such wealth and notoriety for nothing more than entertaining the multitudes by engaging in “sports”, much like the “Gladiators” in ancient Rome who were mostly “slaves”, the irony is stark.

  10. From now until November Joe will be struck down with demention. Even if it doesnt happen he still cant survive the debates. American people will not elect a man who cant even think clearly.

  11. It’s difficult to consider that the students ripped off by the Universities for student debt and schooling in subjects which lead to menial service employment would still consider that the classes they took which found so much wrong when the country was growing so well would bother to believe it.

  12. So we are being told that “one of the biggest problems was how information from polls was sometimes cherrypicked and reported on the news”, then we are presented with two “cherrypicked” pieces of information clearly intended to make it appear that Trump’s chances are really not that bad. Why were those two specific pieces of information chosen when there are all kinds of other ones that indicate Biden’s lead is real?
    The idea that the polls should be ignored now because they “got it wrong” in 2016 seems misguided to me for (at least) these reasons:
    1) Biden isn’t Clinton, specifically Clinton had a much worse “unfavorable” rating than Biden does
    2) There are no serious third-party candidates
    3) Trump’s behavior may have welded his base ever tighter to him, but it hasn’t done anything to expand it. So he may get more enthusiastic votes, but not any more of them. And it has certainly energized opposition to him.
    4) The polls weren’t that wrong in 2016. They predicted Clinton would win the popular vote by 3.3% when she actually won by 2.1%. That’s within the MOE.
    Here’s a good cherrypicked factoid I heard three weeks ago: In 2016, among voters who disliked both candidates, Trump beat Clinton by 17%. In 2020, that same group of voters favor Biden by 58%!

  13. As I recall, Clinton also did better whenever she’d stay out of sight. People can like the “idea” of Biden, but when he comes out of his basement and especially if he is subjected to hard questioning, people are likely to say “Oh my! That’s not good!”

    Can this strategy of keeping him hidden be pushed all the way to November? I hope the People won’t stand for that.

  14. The day I realized Trump would win last time was when Reuters (boy do they hate him) published one of the only polls putting him in the lead. They took it down a day or too later. Knowing that the hype was the market would crash if he won, I shorted Ulta (which was over priced after a great quarter) the day of the election and closed it up 5 minutes into the market open the next day. EASY MONEY! Thank you George!

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