The following is a news analysis.
We all know that a lot is at stake for each side depending upon the outcome of the 2020 election.
But this is a key event for something that is even larger than one campaign: the polls and pundits.
The narrative after 2016 was that the polls were actually accurate; they just picked the wrong winner. The truth is, most people understand that the way the polls were reported in 2016, they were used as narratives to try to give the appearance that— as many experts incorrectly claimed— Trump could never win. Obviously, the opposite was true.
There was already simmering mistrust of polls after past big misses. It would seem 2020 will be make or break for the polls and pundits.
If Biden defeats Trump, it could well be that some measure of self-correction was done by those crunching and reporting on polls. That could begin a restoration of confidence in the polling system, although many will likely remain circumspect until more proof of accurate polling is in the rear view mirror.
If, on the other hand, Trump wins, it will be impossible for many people to any longer trust in the system of polling and pundits we’ve relied upon for so long. If that happens, those responsible will be forced to evaluate and do a wholesale renovation of their industry if they hope to have any meaningful relevance in the near future.
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