The following is a news analysis. It is also published at Real Clear Politics.
Five Indicators of the Trump-Biden Outcome
A few people have asked for my analysis of the 2020 presidential race, particularly because I was one of the few national journalists who consistently predicted (see the 2:42 mark in this clip) that Donald Trump would win the Republican nomination, and then the presidency, starting in 2015.
Iโm not an elections analyst, and so my read of the situation is worth about what youโre paying for it. My correct pick of Trump for 2016 could be chalked up to nothing more than a lucky guess. I also want to point out that my โpickโ this year should not discourage anybody, no matter where they stand. To state the obvious: As much as many observers pretend to already know the outcome, Election Day hasnโt yet taken place. Anything can happen. Either candidate can win. Most people who will vote havenโt yet done so. These are simply six key signals Iโm looking at for my own analysis.
1. The Sky Didnโt Fall
While Trump supporters and opponents may disagree on this point, the fact is that many of the catastrophic predictions made four years ago by the supposedly best pundits, and political and economic experts, didnโt come true. The stock market didnโt crash upon Trumpโs election. He didnโt ban Muslims. He didnโt put illegal immigrants on trains and send them back to Mexico. He didnโt start a nuclear war. In fact, a number of Trumpโs policies and approaches largely worked as he promised. Some of those who didnโt support him in 2016 because they believed the dire forecasts have now come aboard the Trump train.
2. Trump Now Has a Track Record
Unlike in 2016, Trump now has a performance record to judge him by. No longer the complete โwild card,โ he did not, in general, say one thing and then do an entirely different thing. This includes cutting federal regulations, replacing NAFTA with a newly negotiated trade deal, leading the U.S. to energy independence, pulling the U.S. out of a global climate change agreement, crushing ISIS, leading employment to record lows, and selecting conservative judges as Supreme Court justices.
3. The Media Disconnect
Trump has brought aboard some people who didnโt support him in 2016 because of narratives such as he is anti-Semitic, racist, anti-Muslim, anti-immigrant, a war monger, and a Russian agent. However, these voters have now seen Trump defy many narratives. For example, he moved the U.S. Embassy to the capital of Israel (without the bedlam long predicted by seasoned politicians), and heโs highly regarded by Israelโs leader. He made permanent funding commitments to historically black colleges. His first foreign trip as president was to Muslim-dominated Saudi Arabia. He hasnโt gotten America involved in new wars. And the persistent claim that Trump and his team colluded with Russia dissolved with Special Counsel Robert Muellerโs investigation. With these revelations, some voters came to believe that the media is putting out false information about Trump and unfairly trying to manipulate their opinion.
4. Off-the-Charts Enthusiasm
Thereโs no comparison between the enthusiasm for Trump and that for his opponent, Joe Biden.
5. More Experience as President
Trump now has more experience as president than he did four years ago, and thatโs four more years than Biden has in the job. He has proven to be a fighter, resilient, energetic, and establishment-defying.
Iโd be remiss not to raise a few important counterpoints that could tip the scales the other way.
Although enthusiasm for Biden is lackluster, the enthusiasm against Trump is as strong as, if not greater than, it was in 2016.
Lack of enthusiasm used to fairly easily transfer into fewer votes. But the unprecedented drive to make mail-in, early, and absentee voting easier than ever means that more voters who hate Trump โ but might not stand in line to vote for Biden โ could actually cast ballots this time.
Some people who hate Trump but didnโt bother to vote four years ago because they never thought heโd win will turn out this time because they know it can happen again.
There is an element of Trump fatigue. Even if they donโt blame him for it, some voters are tired of the constant turmoil that surrounds any initiative he undertakes or any decision he makes.
And lastly, at last check, Biden far outpaced Trump in terms of money raised. A lot of that money is used to saturate key markets with negative advertising. Hillary Clinton out-raised Trump by a 2-1 margin in 2016 and lost, but money is a factor.
In the end, all things considered, this political outsider is predicting another four years for Trump and that โ thanks to factors such as the protests, rioting and chaos in some cities โ heโll rake in a larger popular vote than he did before.
Then again, a political outsider like me couldnโt possibly be so wildly off of the prevailing wisdom โ and be correct โ twice in a row. Right?
Thanks to the thousands who have already supported!
A good and concise overview of the main issues and a conclusion based on reality.
The wild card will be voter fraud and information/voter suppression.
FTR, both Facebook (March) and Twitter (the last 20 minutes of the last Trump-Biden debate) have locked me out of my accounts. Lots of hanky-panky going on out there.
We shall begin to get an idea of what has happened shortly. I voted shortly after the polls opened in Louisiana and the wait was about 45 minutes.
Nope. It doesn't look like you are going to be correct twice, Sharyl. Sorry.