COVID-19 infections will be "mostly gone" by April due to herd immunity, says Johns Hopkins professor, Dr. Martin Makary, in a Wall Street Journal opinion article.
There is reason to think the country is racing toward an extremely low level of infection. As more people have been infected, most of whom have mild or no symptoms, there are fewer Americans left to be infected. At the current trajectory, I expect Covid will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life.Dr. Martin Makary, Wall Street Journal, 2/18/21
Dr. Makary says that the rapid decline of infection rate the past six weeks (down 77%), can "only be explained" by natural immunity, and that immunity from prior infection is far more common than can be measured by testing.
He applies a "time weighted case-capture average" of 1 in 6.5 to the 28 million confirmed cases and reasons that 55% of Americans already have natural immunity.
Coupled with people getting vaccinated, the country is "racing toward an extremely low level of infection", says Makary.
Dr. Makary argues that people with prior COVID-19 infections should forego vaccines until all vulnerable seniors are vaccinated.
Dr. Makary notes that some of his colleagues agree with him privately, but do not wish to talk about herd immunity publicly for fear the public will become "complacent" in observing preventative measures.
Makary says, "scientists shouldn’t try to manipulate the public by hiding the truth."
Click on the link below to read Dr. Makary's full commentary in the Wall Street Journal: