Update March 11, 2022 with longest observational study yet showing long lasting natural immune response
Update Jan. 14, 2022 with fully vaccinated surpassing vaccinated in Australian hospitals
Update Dec. 16 with most Omicron Covid US cases reported among vaccinated
Update Dec. 12 with Israel study and study on higher vaccine side effects when given to those who already recovered
Update Dec. 5 with Danish data on natural immunity more effective than vaccine immunity
Update Dec. 1 with Qatar study on rarity of serious reinfection
Update Nov. 7 with US study finding dramatically waning vaccine effectiveness
Updated Oct. 30 with UK data showing no difference between viral load/spread in vaccinated and unvaccinated
Updated Oct. 29 with Israel data showing vaccine immunity wore off in just a few months in all age groups
Updated Oct. 13 with UK info showing waning vaccine effectiveness after 3-4 months
Updated Oct. 3 with Finnish study showing antibodies after Covid-19 infection persist for a long time
Updated Sept. 12 with CDC-funded study finding U.S. population reached what some experts said is “herd immunity” levels last May. Also, updated CDC number of fully-vaccinated hospitalizations and deaths with Covid.
Updated Sept. 8 with new study in Science Transitional Medicine and recommended spacing of Covid-19 RNA shots due to declining effectiveness and lack of effectiveness of vaccine mandates
Updated Aug. 27 with large Israel study that finds dramatically better protection from natural immunity than vaccination
Updated Aug. 24 with Israel changing policies with recognition that the Pfizer vaccine allegedly wears off after several months.
Updated Aug. 6 with CDC analysis of Kentucky (unvaccinated Kentuckians had “2.34 times the odds of reinfection” compared with fully vaccinated) and national analysis in Israel (vaccinated Israelis were 6.72 times more likely to get infected after the shot than after natural infection). More below.
Important note: Scientists say antibody tests are not the only way to measure a person’s immunity; some people who have fought off Covid-19, either with or without symptoms, and have immunity will not have measurable antibodies in their systems. Therefore, a negative antibody test should not be considered proof of lack of immunity.
The Natural Immunity Factor
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) became one of the latest high-profile figures to get sick with Covid-19, even though he’s fully vaccinated. In a statement Monday, Graham said it feels like he has “the flu,” but is “certain” he would be worse if he hadn’t been vaccinated.
While it’s impossible to know whether that’s the case, public health officials are grappling with the reality of an increasing number of fully-vaccinated Americans coming down with Covid-19 infections, getting hospitalized, and even dying of Covid. The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) insists vaccination is still the best course for every eligible American. But many are asking if they have better immunity after they’re infected with the virus and recover, than if they’re vaccinated.
Increasingly, the answer within the data appears to be ”yes.”
141 Research Studies Affirm Naturally Acquired Immunity to Covid-19: Documented, Linked, and Quoted
Update: March 11, 2022: The longest observational study yet finds persistent immunity 18 months after natural infection, which beats out two-dose vaccine immunity.
Why does CDC seem to be “ignoring” natural immunity?
In fact, some medical experts have said they’re confounded by public health officials’ failure to factor natural and virus-acquired immunity into the Covid equation. Public and media narratives often press the necessity of “vaccination for all,” chiding states where vaccination rates are lowest. And they use vaccination rates and Covid case counts as inverse indicators of how safe it is in a particular state: high vaccination rate = high safety; high case counts = low safety (they claim).
- The Clot Factor: A Full Measure Town Hall
- The Clot Factor
- The Microvascular Research Foundation
- Long Vax, Long Covid Resources
- Covid-19 Natural Immunity: The Definitive Summary
- Covid-19 Vaccine: 80 of the Most Common Adverse Events
- Covid-19 Vaccine Concerns Summary
- Covid-19 Vaccine Analysis: Common Adverse Events
- Covid-19 Origins: Separating Rumor from Fact (WATCH)
- Report a Possible Vaccine Adverse Event
However, vaccination rates alone tell little about a population’s true immune-status. And where high Covid case counts occur, it ultimately means a larger segment of that community ends up better-protected, vaccines aside. That’s according to virologists who point out that fighting off Covid, even without developing any symptoms, leaves people with what’s thought to be more robust and longer-lasting immunity than the vaccines confer.
The vaccine immunity problem
Hard data counters widespread public misinformation that claimed “virtually all” patients hospitalized and dying of Covid-19 are unvaccinated. Pfizer and Moderna had claimed their vaccines were “100% effective” at preventing serious illness. Many in the media even popularized a propaganda phrase designed to push more people to get vaccinated: “pandemic of the unvaccinated.”
Not so, say CDC and other data.
Listen to podcast with Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, who addresses the strength of natural immunity
Recent CDC data found that 74% of those who tested positive for Covid-19 in a Massachusetts analysis had been fully-vaccinated. Equally as troubling for those advocating vaccination-for-all: four out of five people hospitalized with Covid were fully-vaccinated. And CDC said “viral load” — indicating how able the human host is to spread Covid-19 — is about the same among the vaccinated and unvaccinated. Contrary to the infamous misinformation by CDC Director Rochelle Walensky last May, vaccinated people can— and are— spreading Covid. (CDC officials later corrected Walensky’s false claim.)
Below: CDC’s data with light blue showing fully vaccinated. Dark blue is unvaccinated (but may include some fully vaccinated.)
CDC’s newest findings on so-called “breakthrough” infections in vaccinated people are mirrored by other data releases.
Illinois health officials recently announced more than 160 fully-vaccinated people have died of Covid-19, and at least 644 been hospitalized; ten deaths and 51 hospitalizations counted in the prior week. Israel’s Health Ministry recently said effectiveness of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine has fallen to 40 percent. Last month, 100 vaccinated British sailors isolated on a ship at sea reportedly came down with Covid seven weeks into their deployment. In July, New Jersey reported 49 fully vaccinated residents had died of Covid; 27 in Louisiana; 80 in Massachusetts. In Iceland there is a spike in cases, mostly among the vaccinated, among a highly-vaccinated population that had previously claimed to have defeated Covid-19. Of 116 cases diagnosed in one day, 73 were among the vaccinated; 43 were unvaccinated.
Nationally, as of July 12, CDC said it was aware of more than 4,400 people who got Covid-19 after being fully vaccinated and had to be hospitalized; and 1,063 fully vaccinated people who died of Covid. But health officials still argue that vaccinated people make up only a small fraction of the seriously ill. Critics counter that CDC’s recent Massachusetts data calls that into question.
Update Jan. 14, 2022: Data published in Australia shows the number of fully vaccinated Australians In the hospital with Covid-19 surpassed the number of hospitalized who are unvaccinated. “The number of double-dose vaccinated patients in intensive care units (ICUs) also surpassed those of the unvaccinated, with 50.3% of the vaccinated presenting to ICU with COVID-19, more than the 49.1% who are unvaccinated.”
Update Dec. 16, 2021: As Omicron hits U.S., most initial cases are reported among vaccinated. “Officials disclosed the vaccination status of 66 of the infected individuals. Of those, the vast majority, or 52, were fully vaccinated. Some had even gotten booster shots.”
Update Dec. 12, 2021: Israel study Covid-19 infections and severe disease were higher among the vaccinated than those who recovered from the illness. The naturally immune had a 10.5 per 100,000 infection rate 4-6 mos. following recovery, vs a 69.2 per 100,000 rate among vaccinated. The number of severe cases was also higher among the vaccinated: 0.9 percent of all cases among that group were severe, compared with 0.5 percent of cases among the recovered.Researchers found that protection against infection dropped over time among both the recovered and vaccinated, but the drop was more pronounced among the vaccinated.
Update Dec. 12, 2021: A study finds those who previously had Covid and then get vaccinated may be at higher risk of adverse events from vaccine.
Update Dec. 5, 2021: Danish data indicates previously-infected are two times less likely to be identified as Covid-positive than fully-vaccinated.
Update Dec. 1, 2021: A study from Qatar finds death from reinfection after people have had one case of Covid is unheard of. “None led to hospitalization in an ICU, and none ended in death. Reinfections were rare and were generally mild, perhaps because of the primed immune system after primary infection.”
Update Sept. 7, 2021: CDC said it was aware of 2,675 fully vaccinated people who got Covid and died, and 11,440 more who were hospitalized with Covid for a total of 14,115, a small fraction of the seriously ill.
Update August 6, 2021: CDC has released a small analysis in Kentucky and indicated that it’s proof that vaccines are more effective than natural immunity. Read the analysis here. According to CDC, among the reinfected sample, 20% had been fully vaccinated. Among those who had Covid and were not later reinfected, 66% were unvaccinated. “Kentucky residents who were not vaccinated had 2.34 times the odds of reinfection compared with those who were fully vaccinated.”
Update August 6, 2021: In Israel, more than 7,700 new cases of the virus have been detected during the most recent wave starting in May, but just 72 of the confirmed cases were reported in people who were known to have been infected previously – that is, less than 1% of the new cases. Roughly 40% of new cases – or more than 3,000 patients – involved people who had been infected despite being vaccinated. By contrast, Israelis who were vaccinated were 6.72 times more likely to get infected after the shot than after natural infection, with over 3,000 of the 5,193,499, or 0.0578%, of Israelis who were vaccinated getting infected in the latest wave.
Update August 27, 2021: A large study in Israel finds natural immunity confers longer lasting and stronger protection against infection, symptomatic disease and hospitalization for the Delta variant of Coronavirus compared to two-doses of Pfizer vaccine.
According to the study, after three months, risk of infection was 13.06 times higher among vaccinated patients and they were 27 times more likely to experience symptoms than unvaccinated people who’d had Covid previously.
Participants who were double jabbed were 5.96 times more likely to be infected and 7.13 times more likely to experience symptoms including cough, fever and shortness of breath.
Update Oct. 29, 2021: Israeli researchers find “Immunity against the Delta variant from Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine waned after a few months across age groups.”
Update Oct. 30, 2021: A UK study finds “fully vaccinated individuals with breakthrough infections have peak viral load similar to unvaccinated cases and can efficiently transmit infection in household settings,” “peak viral load did not differ by vaccination status or variant type” and “Household Secondary Attack Rate for delta infection, regardless of vaccination status, was 26%.”
Update Nov. 7, 2021: A U.S. study finds after 6 mos. Moderna vaccine effectiveness drops to 60%. Pfizer drops to 49%. J&J drops to 13%. Last yr, FDA’s Dr. Hahn said FDA wouldn’t authorize vaccines that weren’t at least 50% effective.
The bright side of recovering from Covid-19
But there’s promising news to be found within natural and acquired immunity statistics, according to virologists. As of May 29, CDC estimated more than 120 million Americans— more than one in three— had already battled Covid. While an estimated six-tenths of one-percent died, the other 99.4% of those infected survived with a presumed immune status that appears to be superior to that which comes with vaccination.
If doctors could routinely test to confirm who has fought off and become immune to Covid-19, it would eliminate the practical need or rationale for those protected millions to get vaccinated. It would also allow them to avoid even the slight risk of serious vaccine side effects.
Read more about Israel cases here
Unfortunately, virologists say no commonly-used test can detect with certainty whether a person is immune. A common misconception is that antibody tests can make that determination. But experts say immunity after infection or exposure often comes without a person producing or maintaining measurable antibodies.
Because of that reality, people who have had asymptomatic infections — infections where they suffered no symptoms — have no easy way to know that they’re immune. However, a growing body of evidence indicates that the millions who know they got Covid can be assured they’re unlikely to suffer reinfection, for at least as long of a time period that scientists have been able to measure. Possibly far beyond.
Update Aug. 24, 2021: With evidence of seriously-waning immunity at the five- to six-month mark, CDC is now recommending a third “booster” shot. In highly-vaccinated Israel, recognition that vaccination likely does not confer protection beyond a few months, the country has reimagined its vaccine passports. They will only apply to people who have had three shots, and only be good for a six month period of time. So far, the U.S. government has only adopted the third booster recommendation for certain individuals.
Update Sept. 8, 2021: Due to the waning immunity of Covid-19 vaccines, scientists are considering spacing out the two shots longer. They theorize that giving them as close together as they did was a mistake because the two shot regimen “acted as one shot” in terms of immunity. Other countries have already added additional weeks of spacing between the two Pfizer and Moderna shots.
Update Sept. 8, 2021: A study in Science Transitional Medicine finds natural infection may provide more powerful protection than double dose Covid-19 vaccination.
Update Sept. 12, 2021: A CDC-funded study finds the U.S. population reached a combined 83% natural infection and vaccine-induced immunity in May, 2021. That would mean the percentage is substantially higher today and beyond what many scientists said was necessary to achieve “herd immunity.”
Update Oct. 3, 2021: A Finnish study of Covid-19 recovered patients that looked as far as 13 months after infection finds “protection against re-infection is long-lived, although antibody-mediated immunity may not persist equally well among elderly subjects.” Federal scientists have previously found that flu shots are ineffective in the elderly due to immune issues. As more of the elderly got flu shots over the years, more of them died rather than the other way around, according to the definitive government study.
Updated Oct. 13, 2021: Data from the UK finds vaccines are “highly effective,” but effectiveness wanes after as little as 3-4 months.
The immunity-after-Covid-infection studies
The following are some of the data and studies relevant to immunity acquired after Covid infection.
This is the longest observational study yet, finding persistent immunity among naturally infected 18-months later, outperforming two-dose vaccine immunity.
141 Research Studies Affirm Naturally Acquired Immunity to Covid-19: Documented, Linked, and Quoted
Epidemologist Dr. Paul Alexander has compiled this list.
Protection and waning of natural and hybrid COVID-19 immunity
This study from Israel shows vaccinated people were twice as likely as unvaccinated, previously-infected to get a serious Covid case and were six times more likely to get Covid.
Severity of SARS-CoV-2 Reinfections as Compared with Primary Infections, Nov. 24, 2021
This study finds death among those reinfected with Covid is unheard of. “None led to hospitalization in an ICU, and none ended in death. Reinfections were rare and were generally mild, perhaps because of the primed immune system after primary infection.”
This study finds “Household Secondary Attack Rate for delta infection, regardless of vaccination status, was 26%” and “peak viral load did not differ by vaccination status.”
Waning Immunity after the BNT162b2 Vaccine in Israel, Oct. 27, 2021
Unlike natural immunity, Israeli data confirms that the Pfizer vaccine wore off in just a few months in all age groups.
Persistence of neutralizing antibodies a year after SARS-CoV-2 infection in humans, Sept. 24, 2021
This Finnish study of Covid-recovered patients finds “protection against re-infection is long-lived, although antibody-mediated immunity may not persist equally well among elderly subjects.”
Analysis of the Effects of COVID-19 Mask Mandates on Hospital Resource Consumption and Mortality at the County Level, Sept. 3, 2021
This study by government scientists finds “There was no reduction in per-population daily mortality, hospital bed, ICU bed, or ventilator occupancy of COVID-19-positive patients attributable to the implementation of a mask-wearing mandate.”
Estimated US Infection- and Vaccine-Induced SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence Based on Blood Donations, July 2020-May 2021, Sept. 2, 2021
This CDC-funded study finds the U.S. population reached a combined 83% natural infection and vaccine-induced immunity in May, 2021. That would mean the percentage is substantially higher today and beyond what many scientists said was necessary to achieve “herd immunity.”
Comparing SARS-CoV-2 natural immunity to vaccine-induced immunity: reinfections versus breakthrough infections, Aug. 24, 2021
This large study in Israel shows “natural immunity confers longer lasting and stronger protection against infection, symptomatic disease and hospitalization caused by the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2, compared to the BNT162b2 two-dose vaccine-induced immunity.”
This study followed 254 Covid-19 patients for up to 8 months and concluded they had “durable broad-based immune responses.” In fact, even very mild Covid-19 infection also protected the patients from an earlier version of “SARS” coronavirus that first emerged around 2003, and against Covid-19 variants. “Taken together, these results suggest that broad and effective immunity may persist long-term in recovered COVID-19 patients,” concludes the study scientists.
This study of airline passengers in Qatar found that both vaccination and prior infection were “imperfect” when it comes to preventing positive Covid-19 test results, but that the incidence of reinfection is similarly low in both groups.
This study used “deep mutational scanning” and found natural infection may provide more powerful protection than double-dose Covid-19 vaccination: “This greater binding breadth means that single RBD mutations have less impact on neutralization by vaccine sera compared to convalescent sera.”
Necessity of COVID-19 vaccination in previously infected individuals, June 1, 2021
This study followed 52,238 employees of the Cleveland Clinic Health System in Ohio.
For previously-infected people, the cumulative incidence of re-infection “remained almost zero.” According to the study, “Not one of the 1,359 previously infected subjects who remained unvaccinated had a [Covid-19] infection over the duration of the study” and vaccination did not reduce the risk. “Individuals who have had [Covid-19] infection are unlikely to benefit from COVID-19 vaccination,” concludes the study scientists.
SARS-CoV-2 specific memory B-cells from individuals with diverse disease severities recognize SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern, May 29, 2021
This study found strong immune signs in people who had previously been infected with Covid-19, including “those [who] experienced asymptomatic or mild disease.” The study concludes there is “reason for optimism” regarding the capacity of prior infection “to limit disease severity and transmission of variants of concern as they continue to arise and circulate.”
A population-based analysis of the longevity of SARS-CoV-2 antibody seropositivity in the United States, May 24, 2021
This study of real world data extended the timeframe of available data indicating that patients have strong immune indicators for “almost a year post-natural infection of COVID-19.” The study concludes the immune response after natural infection “may persist for longer than previously thought, thereby providing evidence of sustainability that may influence post-pandemic planning.”
SARS-CoV-2 infection induces long-lived bone marrow plasma cells in humans, May 24, 2021
This study examined bone marrow of previously-infected patients and found that even mild infection with Covid-19 “induces robust antigen-specific, long-lived humoral immune memory in humans.” The study indicates “People who have had mild illness develop antibody-producing cells that can last lifetime.”
People who have had mild illness develop antibody-producing cells that can last lifetime.
World Health Organization (WHO) scientific brief, May 10, 2021
This scientific brief issued by WHO states that after natural infection with Covid-19, “available scientific data suggests that in most people immune responses remain robust and protective against reinfection for at least 6-8 months.”
Detection of SARS-CoV-2-Specific Humoral and Cellular Immunity in COVID-19 Convalescent Individuals, May 3, 2020
This study found humoral and cellular immunity in recovered Covid patients. “Production of S-RBD-specific antibodies were readily detected in recovered patients. Moreover, we observed virus-neutralization activities in these recovered patients,” wrote the study authors.
The adaptive immune system consists of three major lymphocyte types: B cells (antibody producing cells), CD4+ T cells (helper T cells), and CD8+ T cells (cytotoxic, or killer, T cells
From: Antigen-Specific Adaptive Immunity to SARS-CoV-2 in Acute COVID-19 and Associations with Age and Disease Severity
Protection of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection is similar to that of BNT162b2 vaccine protection: A three-month nationwide experience from Israel, April 24, 2021
This study from Israel found a slight advantage to natural infection over vaccination when it comes to preventing a reinfection and severe illness from Covid-19.
The study authors concluded, “Our results question the need to vaccinate previously-infected individuals.”
A 1 to 1000 SARS-CoV-2 reinfection proportion in members of a large healthcare provider in Israel: a preliminary report, March 6, 2021
This study found a rare Covid-19 positive test “reinfection” rate of 1 per 1,000 recoveries.
This study finds people who had Covid and then got vaccinated with Pfizer, anyway, may be at higher risk of adverse events from vaccination.
Lasting immunity found after recovery from COVID-19, Jan. 26, 2021
Research funded by the National Institutes of Health and published in Science early in the Covid-19 vaccine effort found the “immune systems of more than 95% of people who recovered from COVID-19 had durable memories of the virus up to eight months after infection,” and hoped the vaccines would produce similar immunity. (However, experts say they do not appear to be doing so.)
SARS-CoV-2 reinfection in a cohort of 43,000 antibody-positive individuals followed for up to 35 weeks, Jan. 15, 2021
This study found Covid-19 natural infection “appears to elicit strong protection against reinfection” for at least seven months. “Reinfection is “rare,” concludes the scientists.
Immunological memory to SARS-CoV-2 assessed for up to eight months after infection, Nov. 1, 2020
This study confirmed and examined “immune memory” in previously-infected Covid-19 patients.
Negligible impact of SARS-CoV-2 variants on CD4+ and CD8+ T cell reactivity in COVID-19 exposed donors and vaccinees, Nov. 1, 2020
This study concluded “T cell” immune response in former Covid-19 patients likely continues to protect amid Covid-19 variants.
Orthogonal SARS-CoV-2 Serological Assays Enable Surveillance of Low-Prevalence Communities and Reveal Durable Humoral Immunity, Oct. 13, 2020
This study found that “neutralizing antibodies are stably produced for at least 5–7 months” after a patient is infected with Covid-19.
SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell immunity in cases of COVID-19 and SARS, and uninfected controls, July 25, 2020
This study found that all patients who recently recovered from Covid-19 produced immunity-strong T cells that recognize multiple parts of Covid-19.
They also looked at blood samples from 23 people who’d survived a 2003 outbreak of a coronavirus: SARS (Cov-1). These people still had lasting memory T cells 17 years after the outbreak. Those memory T cells, acquired in response to SARS-CoV-1, also recognized parts of Covid-19 (SARS-CoV-2).
Much of the study on the immune response to SARS-CoV-2, the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19, has focused on the production of antibodies. But, in fact, immune cells known as memory T cells also play an important role in the ability of our immune systems to protect us against many viral infections, including—it now appears—COVID-19.
“Immune T Cells May Offer Lasting Protection Against COVID-19”
Read: scientific commentary by Jay Bhattacharya, Sunetra Gupta, and Martin Kulldorff.
Yep!
An interesting compilation. But where is the reference to the study released by the CDC at the end of October which said thls: “Multiple studies in different settings have consistently shown that infection with SARS-CoV-2 and vaccination each result in a low risk of subsequent infection with antigenically similar variants for at least 6 months. Numerous immunologic studies and a growing number of epidemiologic studies have shown that vaccinating previously infected individuals significantly enhances their immune response and effectively reduces the risk of subsequent infection, including in the setting of increased circulation of more infectious variants.”
Perhaps this study was flawed. I don’t know and I doubt that many readers of this newsletter would know either. But it should be here if SA’s intent is “simply providing study information and data”.
Including this article would also help dispel the story that “the CDC is ignoring natural immunity” (a continual story line in this newsletter). It’s hard to argue that something is being ignored if there is a recently published study about it. Just because the CDC didn’t reach the conclusion that others would like them to, doesn’t mean that they are ignoring anything.
And I think that the natural immunity path is not being described correctly. How exactly is it supposed to work? If it were true that surviving COVID once would convey lifetime immunity to subsequent infections, then the argument for just getting COVID and being done with it would make sense. But it doesn’t. So really what that side is saying is that they are just planning on getting sick over and over again and hoping to weather the storm. That’s not really using natural immunity except for the period of time immediately following infection – the same period of time that the vaccine has been shown to be effective for.
If I have misinterpreted something, please explain to me exactly how those shunning the vaccine are supposed to recharge their immune systems after their antibody levels drop months after an infection (without getting sick again, that is)?
Sharyl, in the just released CDC directive requiring testing within 24 hours of boarding on a flight to the US:
The lone exception is “people who present a valid Documentation of Recovery,” said the CDC order.
Ah ha – The CDC presents natural immunity as better than the vaccines
Great Article Sharyl!
Like so many others, I am being bullied into getting vaccinated after having a legit bout of COVID this year. Thankfully I was able to get the virus and develop natural immunity.
If you find any research that discusses infection rates of people who were vaxxed after having an unvaxxed infection, I would love to see it. I am concerned that the vaccine that I’m being forced to take may actually harm the natural immunity I have from the infection. (There’s just something sinister about ignoring evidence in favor of a forced medical procedure.)
I say that today (October 29th) the CDC has released a study claiming the opposite of what all these other studies have shown; now they say the vaccine immunity is superior to natural immunity. How can we “follow the science” when the science is playing whack-a-mole with us?
Really great analysis of the CDC’s most recent, desperate case of Lying with Statistics by Alex Berenson. Look him up on Substack.
Yes, thanks. I saw that yesterday when someone posted it on another site.
No one is vaccinated against covid, fully or otherwise. Nearly everyone in the world outside of infants (no previous exposure) and the very elderly (waning T-cell protection) already had cross-reactive immunity to it in December, 2019 through encounters with the other coronaviruses that cause common colds. No one needs a vaccine for something their immune systems already recognize. But these products do not meet the legal and medical definitions of a vaccine. None of them prevent illness, transmission, or death. None of the trials demonstrated that they do. The Lancet recently reported that the actual risk reduction provided by Pfizer’s injection is .84%, as opposed to the 95% relative risk reduction that Pfizer reported and which the FDA, which knows better, allowed them to get away with. The best of the lot is AstraZeneca at 1.28% actual risk reduction. Even then, you have to subtract out the 99% false positives produced by PCR, which brings the effectiveness of all of these injections to zero. Furthermore, virtually no one anywhere actually gets covid, because no one gets sick from rhinoviruses, adenoviruses, other coronaviruses, enteroviruses, or influenza viruses any more; they’re just not politically useful. Flu cases alone were down 99% in 2020. What’s being attributed to “covid” through misapplied PCR technology is, 99% of the time, anything but. (At 40 Ct, 99% of PCR positives are false.) There are no waves, surges, spikes, breakouts, or anything else. This 99.998% survivable virus is not novel to the human immune system and it’s ridiculous to even be discussing with a straight face whether someone’s “immune” to it. The answer is “yes” until or unless they get sick, and then it doesn’t matter *what* virus the person has, because its symptoms are identical to those of any other cold, as is the treatment. Never before in medical history has it mattered an iota which cold virus someone has. Which virus is in play doesn’t even matter medically if a cold progresses to pneumonia. They treat the symptoms. There’s no adenovirus-caused pneumonia protocol vs. a rhinovirus-caused pneumonia protocol.
Ms. Attkisson, I’ve admired your professional integrity and resolution for a long time. You would do a great service if you helped people understand what’s behind a lot of the lies the government and pharmaceutical companies have been getting away with for decades, and that’s evidence-based medicine. Like outcome-based learning, it sounds good superficially–medicine based on evidence is awesome!–but it conceals and advances an agenda inimical to medicine, science and even political freedom. When scientists use principles of EBM they express risk in relative terms–which is how Pfizer can claim that its product is 100% effective. This is beyond misleading. For example: A study of the drug Crestor claimed a 46% reduction in the risk of heart attack. Sounds great, but just 17 of the 10,000 people in the treated group had heart attacks, so their actual risk for a heart attack was .17%. In the control group of 10,000, 37 people had heart attacks, for an actual risk of .37%. The difference was 20 fewer heart attacks in 10,000 people for the treated group (.2%). That’s the *absolute* risk reduction: two-tenths of a percent. Anyone would sign up for a drug that cut his risk of heart attack in half. How fast would he sign up for one that cut his risk by .2%? He’d be better off spending his money on bran cereal and a pair of running shoes. The failure of people to understand exactly how profoundly and relentlessly the drug companies, FDA, and CDC are lying has a huge role in keeping this farce alive. The liars know they’re lying. Not a lot of other people do, but they should, and that includes scientists who spend ridiculous amounts of time and energy writing studies about how covid vaccine efficacy wanes at this or that rate, when there was no efficacy to begin with. It’s all sound and fury, signifying nothing. EBM: Check it out.
Looks like we can finally breathe with relief. My sis and bil, both vaccinated, went on a cruise where everyone was supposed to be vaccinated and have a negative test for Covid, both got Covid. BIL almost died. He was in ICU for a week, then intermediate care. Still on oxygen but lower level, still in hospital. BIL in early 70s, sis will be 70 in a few months.
It took me five months to fully recover from Covid-19 but I was never “hospitalized “ so don’t fall into that category although I was in the ER for a day. I guess I was what’s called a “long hauler.” It really bothers me that the only studies ever written about are how many got it, how many were hospitalized and how many died. As if being sick for five months is the same as my friend who had it and was sick for a week. Cheryl, do you know the stats of long-haulers?
Who are the recovered winners? Those of us who put in the time, did the research, and were prepared to treat covid, so we only had a mild case.
Work + preparation = victory
“In Iceland there is a spike in cases, mostly among the vaccinated, among a highly-vaccinated population that had previously claimed to have defeated Covid-19. Of 116 cases diagnosed in one day, 73 were among the vaccinated; 43 were unvaccinated.”
One thing to keep in mind with these statistics is that the numbers of vaccinated vs. unvaccinated people are not the same, so you need to adjust for that fact to understand the statistics better. Just looking at the raw numbers, 63% of the new cases were vaccinated and 37% were unvaccinated. But if 75% of the people are vaccinated, their new cases are less than their percentage of the population. Likewise, if 25% of the population are unvaccinated, their percentage of the new cases (37%) is disproportionally high.
The other thing to consider is the severity of the disease in the two groups, with the majority of the severe cases in the unvaccinated group.
My conclusion is that – relative to Covid-19 alone, i.e., disregarding the reported side-effects of the vaccines, the vaccines provide considerable short-term benefit, but not nearly as much as we had been led to believe.
Sharyl,
Nicely said and easy to follow. My best compliment is to let you know that I will pass this on to as many friends and family as I can. As I see it, a continuing chronology of the events relating to Covid is an important ingredient to educating the public about the scientific process of problem-solving as well as a reminder of what we may have forgotten within that process! Once again, my compliments.
The question I have, and probably many others, is if I am successfully coerced into taking the jab, despite having natural, acquired immunity, will that actually hurt my immunity? Are there any studies related to this question?
CNBC article (below) gives some hope on the Covid front – potential of 90% immunity after the Delta wave is done – in a month or two.
The article mentions:
“Some will have acquired that immunity through vaccination. Some will have acquired that immunity through infection. Some will have been both vaccinated and infected.”
Glad to now see that “Some will have acquired that immunity through infection” part of the sentence. Question: Has “Natural immunity” now found a seat at the Immunity table? – along with the vaccinated folks? Hope so!
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/27/covid-gottlieb-says-90percent-of-americans-may-have-immunity-post-delta.html
Question: What is the rate of re-infection after vax vs re-infection after Natural Immunity (non-vax)? There has been considerably more time (years) to study natural immunity than vax immunity, lets see those studies, after all, any respected scientist would track this VERY important aspect.
Sharyl,
Great summary of pertinent research. I have a question for you to pursue. In April 2020 when the pandemic lockdowns were only 1 month old, I read an article describing the results of a test run at an institute in Hong Kong where a researcher pulled blood from the shelves that had been collected in the years prior to the appearance of COVID-19. She found that 30% of the blood samples attacked and destroyed the COVID virus. I heard nothing again until the last month when another article said that this test had proven true in five different studies. The consolidated results indicating that this this inherent immunity ranged from 20% to 50% across the globe. The US rated at 50%. Is there validity to this result? If so, it would seem that we should have taken a different tack than universal lockdowns.
Antibodies Persist for More Than a Year After COVID-19 Infection, Study Finds
Study:
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/eji.202149535
Article:
https://link.theepochtimes.com/mkt_app/antibodies-persist-for-more-than-a-year-after-covid-19-infection-study-finds_4029278.html
I cannot find this info ANYWHERE and hope you can help! I believe I had Covid-19 in February of 2020. I had every single symptom, and my 3 sons and their families, who live close by and are in close contact with me, also got sick and we all recovered. Took me the longest. Two of my sons did get the vaccine, but my youngest son, his wife, and myself are not vaccinated. I have a blood draw scheduled for next week to check for T and B-cell immunity. HERE IS MY QUESTION: Does getting the vaccine INTERFERE WITH natural immunity? Could it somehow cancel it out, or even worse, make things WORSE if one did contract the virus? I hope you read this! SO frustrating that I can’t find the answer….and no, I don’t use Google as a search engine. Thank you very much for any info! I love the studies on natural immunity! I just worry about my vaccinated sons.
They tell us to get the vaccine in order to keep others safe – and not be selfish. However from an article I read on the Massachusetts Covid-19 outbreak it said they found:
“that vaccinated individuals carried as much virus in their noses as unvaccinated individuals”
If that is the case – then the decision to vaccinate or not is merely a personal decision – since we all carry viral load in our noses.
And I just heard a doctor on talk radio say that children carry NO viral load in their noses. They don’t know why, but they think it may be that children are able to fight off the infection., and probably have stronger immune systems. Probably all that dirt they ate as babies!
LOL!
The CDC-funded Kentucky Study (Reduced Risk of Reinfection with SARS-CoV-2 After COVID-19 Vaccination —Kentucky, May–June 2021) states, “Kentucky residents aged ≥18 years with
SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed by positive nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT) or antigen test results† reported in Kentucky’s National Electronic Disease Surveillance System (NEDSS) during March–December 2020 were eligible for inclusion.” The most common and universally used NAAT is the PCR test which is notoriously too sensitive using cycle thresholds up to 43 times. Nowhere are the Ct values associated with the initial infection identified. This calls into question the intitial infection data. Many of those included were most likely false positives in 2020. Compared to the much more robust Cleveland Clinic study which found 0% reinfection, this study is very questionable. I work in healthcare and we observed both the inaccuracy of the PCR test and the durable protection from natural immunity with zero reinfections after eighteen months – the same as Cleveland Clinc results.
I read that the Cleveland Clinic Study was replicated and did not have the same results. I wonder about that though, especially after reading all of the above research summaries.
Carol, please cite the article. Do you have the link? There is a lot of misinformation out there. Please do not repeat the hearsay. Cite the source.
the recent CDC/MMWR (a case-control study using odds ratios, reporting from Kentucky more than twice the protection with vaccination for those who already had the virus), and also the Israeli article that you cited (pre-print with a massive data – over 700,000 patients – also reporting about twice the protection if those with natural immunity get vaccinated) – both of these statements about vaccination lack context of magnitude. It is absolutely essential to take into account absolute magnitude in this situation.
To illustrate with an example: it is a known fact that in the event of a crash, people who sit in the back of a commercial airliner have twice the chance of survival as those who sit in the middle of the plane. But we do not require everyone to sit in the back of airplanes — because it makes little meaningful difference either way. So in the first part of the Israeli article we get the bigger context: people with natural immunity alone are 13 times less likely to get the delta variant as those with the vaccine alone, even after controlling for the extremely high vaccination rate in that country. Doubling that protection is likely meaningless.
As noted above, Other longitudinal studies that were pre-delta (NEJM Dec 23 antibody positive patients, Lancet UK “SIREN” Study) or early-delta variant (Cleveland Clinic data) also confirm that context: there is extremely little difference between the vaccinated and those with natural immunity. Increasing the protection of natural immunity is a case of “twice as good as already more than good enough.”
Singapore study
https://www.duke-nus.edu.sg/allnews/media-releases/sars-cov-2-specific-t-cell-immunity-in-recovered-patients-and-uninfected-individuals