(GALLUP) Democrats’ advantage at record lows among Blacks and Hispanics

The following is from Gallup News Poll.

The Republican and Democratic parties have distinct strengths within different subgroups of the U.S. population. However, Democrats have lost ground among some of their traditionally stronger support groups while gaining ground with others.

This is based on analysis of Americans’ party preferences, which includes those who identify as Democratic or Republican and those who are independent but lean toward either party.

Of particular note,

  • The Democratic Party’s wide lead over Republicans in Black Americans’ party preferences has shrunk by nearly 20 points over the past three years.
  • Democrats’ leads among Hispanic adults and adults aged 18 to 29 have slid nearly as much, resulting in Democrats’ holding only a modest edge among both groups.
  • Whereas Democrats were at parity with Republicans among men as recently as 2009, and among non-college-educated adults as recently as 2019, they are now in the red with both groups.

Only partially offsetting these trends, the Democratic Party has gained adherents long term among college-educated Americans — those with postgraduate education and those with a college degree only.

These shifts in the party affiliation of key subgroups provide the demographic backstory for how Democrats went from enjoying significant leads over Republicans between 2012 and 2021, to slight deficits in 2022 and 2023.

The 27% of U.S. adults identifying as Democrats and the 43% identifying as or leaning Democratic are both new lows in Gallup’s trend.

The Democratic Party is generally not seeing major declines among other key groups, including women (who retain a solid Democratic preference), adults 65 and older (who are evenly divided), and White adults (who align with the GOP).

Democratic Advantage at Record Lows Among Black and Hispanic Adults

Although Democrats continue to hold a formidable advantage over Republicans among non-Hispanic Black adults in the U.S., their current 47-point lead is the smallest Gallup has recorded in its polling, dating back to 1999.

Most of the decline has been recent, with the net-Democratic ID for this group falling 19 points from a 66-point advantage in 2020. At that time, 77% of Black adults favored the Democrats and 11% the Republicans, so the 2023 findings represent an 11-point decrease in Democratic affiliation since 2020 and an eight-point increase in Republican affiliation.

Similarly, Democrats’ 12-point advantage among Hispanic adults in 2023 represents a new low in trends dating back to 2011, when Gallup began routinely interviewing in Spanish as well as English.

Meanwhile, White adults have maintained a 14- to 17-point preference for the Republican Party in most years since 2014. The parties were closer to parity among this large segment of the electorate between 1999 and 2009.

Demographic trend tables showing the full party ID responses for all three racial/ethnic groups from 1999 to 2023, as well as education, age and gender subgroups, can be found at the end of this story.

Read more here.

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