We begin in the key battleground state of Michigan. Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have been putting extraordinary efforts into courting voters in The Great Lake State. Today, we take the temperature of sometimes fickle voters in a crucial swing state.

The following is a transcript of a report from “Full Measure with Sharyl Attkisson.”
Watch the video by clicking the link at the end of the page.

In the historic downtown of Big Rapids, Michigan The Old Pioneer Store and Emporium and Kilwin’s Chocolate Shop is full of sweet surprises. In 2016, owner Carlleen Rose says she was Trump all-the-way.

Carlleen Rose: Yes, I was excited to vote for Trump in the very beginning, and my husband and I both voted for him. I had great expectations. I thought it was really wonderful.

But she says she became disappointed in Trump’s character.

Rose: So in 2020 I kind of plugged my nose and voted for Biden the second time.

Rose is a quintessential swing voter in a swing state. We’ll tell you who she’s backing in 2024 in a moment.

Swing states are ones that sway back and forth between supporting Democrats and Republicans. Analysts consider this year’s most likely swing states to include Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

David Takitaki is a political scientist at Michigan’s Ferris State University.

David Takitaki: We had both Republicans statewide electeds, as well as Democratic statewide electeds in recent years. We’ve seen it flip back and forth, both in terms of our State House and Senate and in terms of our statewide electeds and differences in the 2016 and 2020 presidential campaigns. So Michigan is a purple state.

Sharyl: Is it unusual that a state would go for one president or presidential candidate and then after he’s elected, turn on him the next time when he goes for reelection?

Takitaki: So that kind of change, especially quite so close in between each other is not super common.

Sharyl: What’s happening in Michigan now with all the upheaval?

Takitaki: Well, the upheaval is the right word to lead into that, because if you’d asked me a few weeks ago, I would’ve said, it looks like Donald Trump is on a flight path to winning Michigan. Most of the polls showed him ahead. I’ve seen a very significant shift that’s not only played out in enthusiasm in the polls. Today, I’d have to say it looks like Harris is gonna take Michigan.

Sharyl: Is her main appeal, do you think, that she’s not Donald Trump?

Takitaki: That’s significant part of what I am hearing, right? There were a lot of people who were like we don’t want the two old guys. Right?. Well, one of the parties seems to have switched that up and gone with somebody who isn’t one of the old guys.

To review, in 2020, Joe Biden won Michigan. Just four years earlier, in 2016, Hillary Clinton was supposedly favored. But on Election Night, it was way closer than expected. Many news outlets waited three weeks full weeks to officially call Donald Trump the winner in Michigan, by around 11,000 votes. The slimmest presidential victory in Michigan history.

Pete Hoekstra: We did it in 2016. We think we can do it again in 2024.

Pete Hoekstra chairs the Michigan Republican Party.

Hoekstra: Clearly, it’s ground zero. We win Michigan, we win the presidency. We win Michigan, we win an open Senate seat, we take control of the Senate. We’ve got a couple of openings in Congress that we can win. So, it’s pretty exciting.

The swing state dynamic means the whole presidential election can come down to people in just a few counties in a few key states. With every vote important, Republicans say a big focus is on election integrity.

Hoekstra: There’s a tremendous amount of pressure in this cycle to make sure that we’ve got, you know, election integrity, a lot of concerns about what happens in the city of Detroit, what happens in Wayne County. And we still have 53 counties— and you gotta think about this— we have 53 counties out of 83 in Michigan that have more registered voters than eligible voters.

Sharyl: So, that’s impossible.

Hoekstra: That’s not possible, right. But it is in Michigan. So, you know, we’re working very, very closely with, you know, the national committee to go in and get as much of that corrected in the voter files cleaned up before the election.

Michigan Republicans won a lawsuit to force the Secretary of State to verify signatures on absentee ballots, as required by law. And while analysts say there’s fraud in every election—most of it is considered nearly impossible to catch. But in Michigan, a few notable cases give hints.

In 2020, a now convicted felon was overseeing election processes in Flint Township. Democrat Kathy Funk tampered with ballots in her own primary and faked a break-in to cover it up. Before she got charged, she’d gone on to serve as Elections Supervisor in Genesee County until 2022.

A Detroit professional guardian, Nancy Williams, pleaded guilty in an absentee ballot trafficking scheme involving elderly voters at a nursing home in the 2020 election.

And Trenae Rainey got caught forging signatures on absentee ballots at the nursing home where she worked.

Hoekstra’s Democrat counterpart in Michigan declined our interview request. But advocates in both parties will be working to track every vote, with Republicans pushing people hard, for the first time, to vote early.

Hoekstra: Obviously, how that benefits us is, you know, we can track who’s voted. So as we get closer and closer to election day, the people that we need to focus on starts to shrink, or we can just expand our universe to low propensity voters, and those types of things. So it does fundamentally change the strategy, and it also takes the risk out of what the weather is like on election day if we have banked the votes.

Sharyl: So, is it true in most states that the parties can track with precision who voted already and who didn’t?

Hoekstra: Yes.

Sharyl: By name?

Hoekstra: By name. Yeah.

Sharyl: Wow. I didn’t know that.

Hoekstra: Yeah. And you could see it in our primary results. You know, typically, Democrats turn out earlier, they have more early voting than what Republicans do. On primary day this year in Michigan, we had more Republicans vote early than we did Democrats. So that’s an encouraging trend that says, “okay, more Republicans are open to voting early.”

What did we hear from Michigan voters? Karen GreenBay is a vote for Harris.

Karen GreenBay: The Republican side, they’re really motivated to, to vote Republican. And, you know, there’s Democrats that are really, excited about coming out and some even voting for the first time or hadn’t voted in years. So yeah, I think there’s excitement in both parties.

Sharyl: Who are you gonna vote for now?

Tim Hahn: Kamala Harris.

Sharyl: Okay. What are some of your reasons, what are the important things to you? Or is it an issue thing?

Hahn: I am definitely a Never Trumper, so I would classify myself as that. He’s obviously mentally ill. He’s unstable. I mean, it blows my mind that this guy is still a candidate.

Bruce Borkovich: I think President Trump will be President Trump again. He’s always been President Trump to me. But, I think it’s gonna be very close. I think that’s a pendulum swing like we always see. And I think that will come back toward the center. And I think on voting day, people are going to say: “Okay, enough’s enough. We’ve seen what four years have done to us. We need to make a change.”

Teresa Mills: I will not vote for Donald J. Trump.

Sharyl: When you say you’re not going to vote for Trump, does that mean you’re going to vote for Harris or have you decided?

Mills: Oh yeah.

Sharyl: And what are the reasons?

Mills: Just because of the life experience.

Sharyl: Trump’s got life experience. What don’t you like about him?

Mills: He’s got life experience, a salesman, real estate and a TV show, reality show host.

Sharyl: And president.

Mills: Yeah. Well. Oh, you’re good. I don’t feel he ever should have been anywhere near the White House.

So, what about our swing voter — candy shop owner Carlleen Rose — who voted once for Trump and once for Biden?

Rose: I am absolutely going to vote for Harris.

Sharyl: Do you feel happier about voting for Harris than about Biden?

Rose: I was going to actually write God’s name in for as a write in vote. I was not going to, I could not support Biden. He was not capable of being a leader. And so when he stepped down and Harris stepped up, I feel really enthused. I’m excited.

Proof that in swing states, elections are like a box of chocolates. You never know what you’re going to get.

Sharyl (on-camera): Several voters who tried to vote twice in the recent primary in a Michigan swing county were not charged with what would have been alleged felonies, because prosecutors say the voters meant no harm and the double ballots were caught.

Watch video here.

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