Apparently, nobody can say for certain

The following was first published on SHARYL ATTKISSON‘s free Substack

Trying to pin down the precise number of lives that have been lost so far in the Russia-Ukraine war, now grinding into its third year, proved to be pretty impossible.

I set about the task because I’ve noticed a lot of different numbers floating in reports and estimates. Some of them are unreliable, shrouded in secrecy, or tangled up in propaganda. 

One thing we do know: soldiers and civilians alike have paid a steep price on both sides.

In short, the best idea I could come up with is a total of between 201,685 and 266,685 civilian and soldier deaths, if we are to trust lower estimates (BBC/Mediazona for Russia). However, if Ukraine’s massive 839,040 figure is closer to reality (many doubt it, assuming it includes wounded, not just lives lost), the total could be closing in on 895,000. 

Read on for details of the calculations, the sourcing for them, and why it’s so tough to know for sure.

Ukraine: Soldiers and Citizens Caught in the Crossfire

The Ukrainian government has been tight-lipped about its military losses, treating them like a state secret. But in December 2024, President Volodymyr Zelensky broke the silence.

At a press conference in Kyiv, he stated that 43,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed since Russia’s full-scale invasion kicked off on February 24, 2022. 

He pegged the number of wounded at 370,000, bringing total military casualties to around 413,000. Fast forward to March 2025, and analysts suggest that number could have climbed to about 449,000, factoring in the relentless fighting since then. 

When it comes to Ukrainian civilians, the United Nations has been the go-to counter. The Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) reported on November 15, 2024, that 12,162 civilians had been killed as of October 31, that year. 

By February 15, 2025, that number had ticked up to 12,605, according to a Statista chart citing OHCHR data. 

The UN officials actually say that the toll is likely higher—bodies buried in rubble or lost in occupied zones don’t always make the list in a timely fashion. 

Russia: A Black Box of Casualties

From Russia, the numbers are even murkier. The Kremlin last coughed up an official figure in September 2022, when Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu claimed 5,937 soldiers had died. 

Western analysts have called that number laughably low. They say Russia is undercounting to keep morale from tanking. No updates from Russia in the two and a half years since.

The BBC Russian Service and Mediazona, an independent outlet, teamed up with volunteers to scour social media, obituaries, and even cemetery photos to try to come up with their own numbers. By September 2024, they’d confirmed 70,112 Russian soldier deaths. They cautioned that the actual toll could be more than double that—146,000 to 211,000—since many bodies stay on the battlefield or go unreported for a long time. 

Meantime, Ukraine’s General Staff claimed on February 1, that 839,040 Russian troops had been “lost,” though it’s unclear how many within that number might refer to wounded versus killed.

When it comes to Russian civilians, there seems to be no systematic tally. We only have glimpses. Experts say it’s doubtless there are some civilian deaths— Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russian soil, like in Belgorod, have reportedly killed civilians. 

The Moscow Times cited just 80 civilian deaths by August 2023, per independent reports, and TASS, a state-run Russian outlet, noted 31 killed in Ukraine’s Kursk incursion in July 2024. 

When it comes to credibility, both sides have reason to fudge. Russia might downplay to avoid panic and loss of morale. Ukraine might inflate enemy losses for morale reasons. The UN’s civilian count is said to be the most trusted, but even they say it’s a floor, not a ceiling. The BBC’s estimate is incomplete. As for Ukraine’s 839,040 claim for Russian troops, Western analysts like those at The Economist pegged Russia at 462,000 to 728,000 casualties by mid-2024.

Share

Vietnam comparisons

The Vietnam War’s death toll also varies depending upon who’s counting and who’s included. For U.S. forces, the Vietnam Veterans Memorial Fund pegs it at 58,281 killed over roughly 20 years (1955–1975, though major U.S. involvement was 1965–1973). 

Total casualties—dead plus wounded—reached about 364,510, per historical estimates. 

North Vietnamese and Viet Cong deaths are estimated between 444,000 and 1.1 million, according to a 1995 Vietnamese government report cited in various sources, though these are rough numbers. 

South Vietnamese military deaths add another 254,000 or so. 

Civilian deaths on both sides? Perhaps 2 million, though estimates range from 1.5 to 3 million.

That would make a grand total of somewhere around 2.5 to 3.5 million dead over two decades from the Vietnam War.

Russia-Ukraine’s 201,685–266,685 deaths in just over three years (February 2022–March 2025) is a fraction of Vietnam’s full toll, but already outpaces the U.S. Vietnam deaths alone (58,281) by 3.5 to 4.5 times. 

The pace is intense. Russia-Ukraine might tally 201,685 deaths in 37 months averaging 5,451 per month or 67,000–89,000 per year (per the low estimate). Vietnam counts 125,000–175,000 a year across a longer span. Vietnam’s U.S. losses were 243 monthly over 20 years.

It’s a grim guessing game. Behind every number is a personal story. They’re out there by the thousands, sometimes buried under the rubble, confusion, and propaganda, waiting for the day the war ends and clearer numbers can be gathered. 

More details:

• Low-End Estimate:
  • Ukraine: 43,000 (soldiers) + 12,605 (citizens) = 55,605
  • Russia: 146,000 (soldiers) + 80 (citizens, minimum) = 146,080
  • Total: 55,605 + 146,080 = 201,685
• High-End Estimate (using BBC/Mediazona’s upper range):
  • Ukraine: 43,000 + 12,605 = 55,605
  • Russia: 211,000 (soldiers) + 80 (citizens, minimum) = 211,080
  • Total: 55,605 + 211,080 = 266,685
• Extreme High-End (using Ukraine’s claim):
  • Ukraine: 55,605 (same as above)
  • Russia: 839,040 (soldiers, per Ukraine’s count) + 80 = 839,120
  • Total: 55,605 + 839,120 = 894,725

Read Sharyl Attkisson’s bestseller: “Follow the $cience: How Big Pharma Misleads, Obscures, and Prevails.”