We begin with the powder keg in the Mideast and America’s role. The destruction of Iran’s nuclear sites marks the most significant US intervention in the region since the Gulf War that began in 1990. The resulting dynamic has the potential to reshape a place where war has been a constant for thousands of years—defined more recently by Iran’s hostility toward Israel and the US, its nuclear ambitions, and its role in global oil markets.

The following is a transcript of a report from “Full Measure with Sharyl Attkisson.”
Watch the video by clicking the link at the end of the page.

In the span of a week, the US shifted from the brink of global conflict to a fragile ceasefire. President Trump’s “Operation Midnight Hammer” struck Iran’s nuclear sites.

It was a follow-on to Israel’s “Operation Rising Lion” to thwart Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

Iran’s vast oil reserves make it a critical player in global energy markets and politics.

Iran also controls the Strait of Hormuz where 20% of the world’s oil passes through. If Iran makes good on threats to block it, it could spike prices and disrupt global supply chains.

Alex Vatanka is an expert on Iran.

Sharyl Attkisson: Can you give us an overview, or your analysis of what’s happening now with the Iran-Israel US situation?

Alex Vatanka: So we are in a ceasefire right now, the three parties to the conflict, Iran, Israel, and to some extent the United States have decided this is the time to have a ceasefire. The Iranians had their own reasons to say yes. Will they stay the course? I think they will, because this was the most intense war they had fought. Israel has never fought a war like this before, and the Iranians certainly have never fought a war like this before. And the United States kind of got what it wanted by striking those nuclear facilities. But going forward, really it’s tough to see, unless there’s a political will to sit down and have a political agreement, then we might down the road just be back to where we are now, Iran having a nuclear program, and US and Israel being concerned?

The roots of conflict trace to the 1950s. Iran’s leader nationalized oil, threatening Western markets. The CIA’s “Operation Ajax” ousted him in a coup and empowered a more pro-Western ruler called a Shah.

Alex Vatanka: The 1953 coup obviously happened a very different time. It is the beginning of the Cold War and the British who had been in charge of Iran’s oil and the income that came from oil, were very angry when a new Iranian prime minister, Mohammad Mossad comes and nationalizes that oil and the British are saying, this is, this is our oil. And the Iranians say, no, it’s our oil, it’s on our soil. So the United States gets involved. The Prime Minister is removed. This is 1953, August of 1953. There are plenty of Iranians who still think that was the original sin of the United States intervening in their domestic affairs and getting rid of Prime Minister that was beloved by many.

In the 1970s—Iran thrived as a modernizing, pro-Western monarchy with the capital Tehran, a cosmopolitan hub.

But the Shah’s authoritarian rule and US ties fueled unrest. In 1979, a revolution established an Islamic Republic grounded in strict Muslim religious ideology led by a religious Ayatollah.

The same year, Iranian students seized the US Embassy, holding 66 American hostages for 444 days.

Iran finally released the US hostages, minutes after the inauguration of tough-talking Ronald Reagan in 1981.

Ronald Reagan: When action is required to preserve our national security, we will act. We will maintain sufficient strength to prevail if need be.

Reagan backed Iraq’s Saddam Hussein in the Iraq-Iran war. There was also the Iran-Contra scandal.

Oliver North: I came here to tell the truth, the good, the bad, and the ugly.

The US covertly helped with the sale of weapons to Iran. It was part of a bargain to free other American hostages held by the Iran-backed terrorist group Hezbollah.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, in power for 37 years, has fueled “Death to America and Israel” rhetoric, calling Israel “a cancerous tumor that must be removed.”

Sharyl Attkisson: I think he said that in 2006, which obviously is disturbing and upsetting to Israel and its allies. What are his views on the West?

Alex Vatanka: So if you ask Ali Khamenei, are you anti-Western? He would say, no, I am not. I am opposed to western domination. That’s how he would sort of probably sell the narrative. I don’t buy that. And I have to say, a lot of people inside the regime push back. We know from the various accounts that have come out that other senior leaders in the regime told Khamenei, this course you’ve chosen means confrontation and nothing else. If I had to point to one individual, say, you are the most responsible for where Iran is today—for this conflict with Israel, for why the United States took action against you—it would be the decisions that Ali Khamenei has made since Supreme Leader, going back to June, 1989.

A nuclear-armed Iran is seen as a grave threat. President Obama signed a deal to limit Iran’s nuclear ambitions but it was criticized as weak and scrapped by Trump in 2018. Obama also secretly returned $1.7 billion in cash to Iran.

In 2023, President Biden unfroze $6 billion more in Iranian assets as part of a prisoner swap.

Critics argue the money from Obama and Biden helped Iran build its anti-Western terrorist forces.

They include the Palestinian Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and militias in Iraq.

Notable Iran-backed attacks include: 1983: Hezbollah’s bombing in Lebanon that killed 241 US troops; 1996: the Khobar Towers attack in Saudi Arabia that killed 19 US airmen; Iran arming militias in Iraq targeting US forces; and in 2024, the Iranian government plotting to assassinate Trump before the election, according to US prosecutors.

Sharyl Attkisson: How, and why does Iran have these so-called proxies or these, you know, small armies that operate out of different countries?

Alex Vatanka: So basically, the way I look at the Islamic Republic, despite all its bravado, it’s a weak state. The fundamental weaknesses it has is that it does not have its own people behind it. So one of the reasons they’ve gone into the region and tried to cultivate like-minded groups in places like Iraq and Lebanon, among the Palestinians, in Yemen, is because maybe they could actually have more luck recruiting Arabs than the Iranians.

The October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel, killing over 1,200 people, heightened fears about Iran’s nuclear progress.

Last October on the anniversary of that attack, Zohar Palti, Israel’s ex-Mossad intelligence chief, telegraphed what was to come.

Zohar Palti: Israel will come to a junction right now that if it continues like that with the Hamas, with Hezbollah and things like that, we’ll have to take a really serious decision, whether or not to go to the head of the octopus and not to deal with all of the other ones.

All eyes are on the US, Israel, and Iran as they navigate what’s next—in the high stakes saga that’s spanned decades.

Sharyl Attkisson: If Iran became friendlier with the US and Israel, would it be a more prosperous and better country, do you think?

Alex Vatanka: If you listen to Iranians inside of, under national television, you know, debates, they’re saying that. They’re saying that our foreign policy has killed our economy. Iran should ideally and has the potential to be a top 20 economy in the world. It has the world’s largest oil and gas reserves combined. It has a population of 90 million that’s fairly educated. It has plenty of other resources in terms of natural resources, and it’s geographically located in a very desirable place. Lots of things that could change for Iran for the better. The foreign policy needs a major kick, major adjustments, a wake-up call. And I do wonder if what we just witnessed over the last few weeks with the war between Israel and Iran, if that is the moment for that wake-up call, that they come to their senses and they say, look, the supreme meter is 86, he’s the reason why we are here. We shouldn’t listen to him anymore. Somebody try and figure out how we can sideline him, because if that doesn’t happen, the opposite, the much darker version of what could happen is the hardliners come to conclude that the only way they can survive as a regime is to weaponize their nuclear program. They go the other way, they double down. That’s a dark future to sort of think about, just not for the Iranian people, but also for the US and Israel, because they’ll be stuck with what to do next, more and more conflict, more wars. And, again, I hate to think that might be a place where we’re going, but that could well be where we end up.

Sharyl (on camera): For more on this story and our other reports, check out my podcast Full Measure After Hours.

Watch video here.