The following is from Rasmussen Reports.

Less than a year from the next congressional elections, Democrats hold a slim lead in the latest generic congressional ballot.

According to the Rasmussen Reports national survey, 45% of likely voters say they would choose the Democratic candidate if the election were held today, while 42% say they would choose the Republican. Five percent say they would support another candidate, and 8% are not sure.

Democrats’ lead has narrowed slightly since July, but Republicans remain six points below their standing before the November 2024 election, when they held a three-point advantage and narrowly won the House majority.

The survey shows Democrats with stronger party loyalty: 85% say they would back their party’s candidate, compared with 81% of Republicans who say they would choose the GOP nominee. Independents are closely divided, with 36% saying they would choose Republicans and 35% saying they would choose Democrats. Twelve percent say they would support a third-party option and 17% remain undecided.

Among 2024 presidential voters, 81% of Trump voters say they would choose GOP congressional candidates, while 86% of Harris voters say they would choose Democrats.

The survey also notes that J.D. Vance has a commanding early lead in the 2028 GOP primary field, and that Trump’s November job approval stands at 46% approval and 53% disapproval.

The survey of 2,410 likely US voters was conducted Nov. 18–23, 2025, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus two percentage points.

To view survey question wording, click here.