Clinton widens lead in Democrat-heavy NBC-WSJ poll

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Update: Since this article was published, NBC has announced that among responses after the Sunday night debate, Clinton’s lead shrank to a 7-point advantage in both a four-way matchup and in a head-to-head race — reflecting the same margin that Clinton showed in a mid-September NBC/WSJ poll.” In other words, Clinton holds 7-point lead in a poll with 16% more Democrats interviewed and (in this poll) has recovered from any presumed damage over the lewd remarks.

Original article follows:

Democrat Hillary Clinton has doubled her lead over Republican Donald Trump in a new WSJ-NBC News poll. It’s good news for Clinton and bad news for Trump supporters after the release of a recording of his lewd, private conversation from years ago.

But that may not the full story.

In focus on Full Measure this past Sunday, we heard from a polling expert who cautioned that the headline of any poll rarely tells the full story. Looking at the sample, the WSJ-NBC News poll, like many others, leaned more heavily on Democrats. If Democrats turn out in significantly greater numbers than Republicans, then the poll is likely to be most accurate. If not, then it may not be a true measure of the state of play. On the other hand, there’s little doubt that Trump’s popularity has slipped when compared to similar, previous Democrat-heavy polls.

Another factor introducing possible bias in polls, according to our expert, is the types of questions asked and they way they are asked. For example, respondents in the WSJ-NBC News poll were queried about Trump’s “vulgar” comments. But it appears they were not asked about any negative Clinton developments, such as Wikileaks emails showing that, in paid speeches, she privately told Wall Street types that she has a “private” position on issues and a different “public position,” and used the phrase “open borders.”

Watch our story: The Weird Science of Polling

In the WSJ-NBC News poll sample of 500:

43% or 215 people identify as Democrats
36% or 180 people identify as Republicans
So 35 (16%) more Democrats were interviewed than Republicans.

Therefore, Clinton is leading 10 percentage points among likely voters in a sample that interviewed 16% more Democrats.

13 percentage points more of the sample voted for Obama over Romney in 2012 (yet Obama won by less than 4 percentage points, indicating this poll may lean much more heavily toward Democrats).

7 percentage points more of the sample want a Democrat-controlled Congress, further indicating a Democrat-heavy poll.

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8 Responses to “Clinton widens lead in Democrat-heavy NBC-WSJ poll”

  1. Bill
    October 11, 2016 at 6:45 pm #

    Sharyl,

    All this refers to the same poll you are talking about above.

    Early today our crack researcher friend Lynda sent another article from Sundance at the Conservative Tree House. Pretty incredible to see the attempted manipulation of voters’ minds by the Left!

    Then a bit later, Tom Lifson, publisher of American Thinker, wrote his own editorial on Sundance’s research.

    Full original article at https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/10/11/media-polling-fully-exposed-about-that-nbcwsj-clinton-11-point-poll/#more-123009

    AmThink article at http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2016/10/the_11point_lead_for_hillary_in_wsjnbc_poll_sure_looks_like_psyops.html

    Regardless of your party affiliation, don’t let your friends be suckered by talking heads who trumpet scurrilous polls. They’re all using psy-ops to sway the public into voting for The Liar.

    Bill

  2. Bill
    October 11, 2016 at 6:50 pm #

    Sharyl,

    All this refers to the same poll you are talking about above.

    Early today Sundance at the Conservative Tree House wrote an article evaluating all parts of the poll. Pretty incredible to see the attempted manipulation of voters’ minds!

    Then a bit later, Tom Lifson, publisher of American Thinker, wrote his own editorial on Sundance’s research.

    Full original article at https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/10/11/media-polling-fully-exposed-about-that-nbcwsj-clinton-11-point-poll/#more-123009

    AmThink article at http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2016/10/the_11point_lead_for_hillary_in_wsjnbc_poll_sure_looks_like_psyops.html

    Regardless of your party affiliation, don’t believe the polls that the media trumpets regularly. They’re all using psy-ops to sway the public’s voting habits.

    Bill

  3. csmats
    October 12, 2016 at 9:00 pm #

    Keep up the good work, Ms. Attkisson. Educating people on how to analyze the demographic splits in polling is very important in fighting against the mainstream media’s overt dishonesty. Everyone who reads your articles on this will tell others. I know I have. If you’re armed with the exact numbers and can cite them people intuitively understand the bias. Especially because with Trump it’s many orders of magnitude worse than any other presidential election in the modern era.

  4. John Adams
    October 13, 2016 at 12:51 pm #

    Is the owner of this polling firm not currently employed by the Clinton campaign. This was also exposed by CTH.

  5. J_Rotten
    October 16, 2016 at 7:39 pm #

    Please keep up the great reporting. If there’s ANYTHING this country needs now more than ever, is independence and integrity in journalism. Of course we need journalists first and not paid talking heads, but that’s another wormhole. I love your work no matter who it’s for or against. As long as it’s honest and backed up by the facts, that’s what I want to see.

  6. Heddrick Steel
    October 17, 2016 at 9:09 am #

    Pick those who say they are republicans but voted for Obama. What we’ll probably never know…how many they actually interviewed before they narrowed down to their 500 weighted likely voters

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