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4 thoughts on “WATCH: A reality check on 2020 polls”
Ken
Good one.
Rasmussen comments that Hillary was “up by three” in the polls on election day. And they also discuss the electoral college. The thing that I noticed in the run up to the election is that in the political world’s polling bible, RealClearPolitics, the final final “No Toss Ups” electoral college map had Trump only 3 EVs short of the 269-269 tie that would have been a win (House of Reps votes in an EV tie). “No Toss Ups” means that whichever candidate was ahead in the average of recent polls in that state would be “awarded” the state…The most often used map will shade some states as “Toss Ups” or “Leaning” one way or another. because one candidate’s lead isn’t that large. So all these pundits had this key fact in front of them yet none of them, even the conservatives, brought it up. Trump only needed to flip 1 state to win and he in fact far exceeded this performance. But the info was there. It was ALREADY very close in the Electoral College in their own damn polls. But no one read this and told people about it.
Honestly, I think the only poll that got it right even up to the end was the L.A. Times. Their methodology was different. Instead of a random sample every time, they called the same people over and over again to gauge the shift in their opinions about the candidates.
Good one.
Rasmussen comments that Hillary was “up by three” in the polls on election day. And they also discuss the electoral college. The thing that I noticed in the run up to the election is that in the political world’s polling bible, RealClearPolitics, the final final “No Toss Ups” electoral college map had Trump only 3 EVs short of the 269-269 tie that would have been a win (House of Reps votes in an EV tie). “No Toss Ups” means that whichever candidate was ahead in the average of recent polls in that state would be “awarded” the state…The most often used map will shade some states as “Toss Ups” or “Leaning” one way or another. because one candidate’s lead isn’t that large. So all these pundits had this key fact in front of them yet none of them, even the conservatives, brought it up. Trump only needed to flip 1 state to win and he in fact far exceeded this performance. But the info was there. It was ALREADY very close in the Electoral College in their own damn polls. But no one read this and told people about it.
Link to the RealClearPolitics 2016 Final “No Toss Ups” Electoral College Map:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html
It was already very close.
Honestly, I think the only poll that got it right even up to the end was the L.A. Times. Their methodology was different. Instead of a random sample every time, they called the same people over and over again to gauge the shift in their opinions about the candidates.